Thursday, April 24, 2008

Why Hillary isn't a shit

It seems like everywhere you look now it's all about how Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race and let Obama seal the nomination. The fact is that she cannot overtake Obama in the delegate count and can only win if the super-delegates swing over to her. Many people say that the Democratic party will implode if the super-delegates dare to nominate someone who didn't win the popular vote. But the truth is a little more detailed. From Salon:

"If the Democrats heeded the "winner takes all" democracy that prevails in American politics, and that determines the president, Clinton would be comfortably in front. In a popular-vote winner-take-all system, Clinton would now have 1,743 pledged delegates to Obama's 1,257."

What the hell does that mean!? It's like this: In the Presidential election, whoever wins the state gets all the electoral votes from that state, despite the margin of victory( that's why Gore lost to Bush despite winning the popular vote). In the primaries, each state has their own system. For example, Hillary beat Obama in Nevada but she didn't get all the delegates because Nevada doesn't do winner-take-all. She also won the popular vote in Texas but didn't get all the delegates because Obama won the caucus. I don't even know what a caucus is..

So, what it comes down to is this: The screwed up rules that govern the primaries have allowed Obama to get delegates in some states that he wouldn't get if the state operated the same way as the rest of them ( the same way as the national election). These same screwed up rules allow the super-delegates to swing their votes to any candidate they choose. So, both sides are benefiting from using the rules to their advantage. I'm sure that Hillary would be more than happy to have the super-delegates vote with the popular vote if Obama would give her all the delegates in the states that she won because, if that were the case she would be in the lead.

I don't think that Hillary will be able to pull it off. But I don't blame her one bit for trying. The super-delegates are there for a reason. They are there for the very reason that they are now so crucial. Electoral math is a tricky game and the party wanted a group of people to have the power to swing the nomination based on the realities of the upcoming election, rather than the "will of the people." I know that sounds bad but under the stupid electoral system that we have, most people don't count. Obama won Idaho and Wyoming but both states will go to McCain in the fall. The fact that more democrats in those states like Obama then Hillary won't mean squat in the big show. Texas, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida.... these are the states that could go either way in the general and in every one of them the voters have chosen Hillary over Obama. In polls in Florida, Ohio and Penn, Hillary beats McCain. In those same states, McCain beats Obama. This is why they have super-delegates. Ordinary voters vote for who they like. The super-delegates should vote for who can win.

Personally, I don't really care at this point. But, if by some freak chance the super-delegates do swing the nomination to Hillary there will be chaos, despite the fact that she clearly has the best chance to beat McCain. What will be sad is if they give it to Obama (which seems certain) and then he fails to deliver enough swing states to win. If that should happen, Hillary will join Gore on the pedestal of "I told you so" for the rest of her life.

2 Comments:

Blogger Mark said...

This post has been removed by the author.

10:33 AM  
Blogger Mark said...

Did you realize that when reading one of your more lengthy posts the effect of the white text on the black background has a very unique effect? After reading this post I rolled my eyes to heaven and while staring at my white ceiling I saw what appeared to be the images of Moe, Larry & Curly playing cards with what looked like Jesus. (Or Shemp) Very cool. How do you accomplish this?

10:35 AM  

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